Analysis of risks in commercial poultry production in Oyo State, Nigeria: A Bayesian Decision Model Approach

Abstract

Poultry production, just like other biological activities, is characterized by high level of risk which has a negative implication on the willingness of the poultry farmers to invest fully in the enterprise. The study therefore identified and analyzed occurrence of risks in commercial poultry production in Oyo State. Primary data were collected on farm level with the aid of well-structured questionnaires. A multistage sampling procedure was employed to sample poultry farmers in the study area. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and Bayesian decision model. The average number of birds raised by each farmer was 8652 and most farmers used battery cage system since a larger proportion of the farmers are involved in layer bird production. The identified risk factors were diseases/parasites, droughts, pilfering, pest attacks and unreliable sources of day old chicks. Unreliable sources of day old chicks and diseases/parasites had the highest posterior probabilities of occurrence of 0.495 and 0.435 respectively. Loss of birds due to unreliable sources of day old chicks was very severe in broilers /cockerels (B₅) enterprise with the posterior probability of 0.683, followed by layers/broilers/cockerels (B₃) enterprise with the posterior probability of 0.662. Occurrence of diseases/parasites was found to be very critical in layers/broilers (B₂) enterprise and layers enterprise (B₁) as indicated by their posterior probabilities of 0.652 and 0.577 respectively. These are preventable risk factors if appropriate management practices are adopted. The study therefore calls for policies aimed at reducing the risk in poultry production by developing cost efficient management strategies that would minimise the level of loss due to uncertainties. Adequate vaccination, farm bio-security measures, use of security guard and efficient feed formulation were the major risk management strategies adopted in the study area.